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USD/CHF

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

USD/JPY

The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the breach takes place.

GBP/USD

The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.4480 level. The 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

EUR/USD

The typical range trading on the 4 hour chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the daily Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy

JPY - Yen Foresees New Resistance Level

The Yen suffered during yesterday's trading; sliding against the Dollar, but in early morning hours of the Japanese trading session the trend began to reverse. Recent gains in equity markets have proven to be troublesome for the Yen. The Japanese currency has traditionally been used as a safe haven asset, but recent safe haven currency movements have not been kind to the Yen. Perhaps this is due to the underlying weakness in the Japanese economy and the rapid decline of the country's export sector.The Yen slid against the Dollar to 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the JPY finished down slightly at 142.40 from 142.63. The JPY's most notable loss was against the EUR, as the EUR/JPY level finished up 74 pips at 133.41. The financial year in Japan wraps up at the end of March. With the New Year coming, so may be the 100.00 Yen mark against the Dollar. The resistance level is significant as the USD/JPY has not touched on this valuation since the beginning of November.

EUR - EUR Set for Further Rate Cuts

The EUR experienced mixed results yesterday as the market begins to price in potential Interest Rate cuts to the European currency. Minor declines were seen against the Dollar, but the EUR climbed consistently against its other currency crosses. The EUR/JPY finished the day higher at 133.41 from 1.3267, and the EUR/GBP ended up at 0.9368 from 0.9301.Market participants are set to start pricing in the potential for another Interest Rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is scheduled to meet next week to decide if European Interest Rates will need to be trimmed from their current rate of 1.5%. One politician weighing in on the matter was British Prime Minister Gordon Brow. In a press conference; Brown said he expects that the European benchmark rate would fall below its current level. Perhaps Prime Minister Brown is short on the EUR for obvious reasons.Traders today will want to pay attention to a few important releases from the Euro-Zone economy and Britain. From Europe we will see new industrial order numbers. This indicator is forecasted to show worsening numbers that highlight the deep recession that plagues Europe. Also we will have Britain's current account figures released. This number may have the potential to surprise the market. Better than expected results could add some buoyancy to the GBP against the EUR in today's European trading session.

USD - Dollar Recovery Continues

The Dollar rose yesterday against most of its major rivals as riskier currencies fell out of favor. Despite strong gains in U.S. equities, the Dollar gained ground as the likelihood of further European Interest Rate cuts loom over the currency markets. At the end of the Thursday's trading, the EUR/USD was little changed, despite high volatility most of the day. The USD/JPY closed higher at 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the Dollar also finished higher at 1.4481 from 1.4585.The dramatic sell off of the Dollar appears to have ceased as yesterday's trading was characterized by reduced market risk and future Interest Rate levels. The Dollar was sold heavily last week, sparked by the announcement that the Federal Reserve will begin a quantitative easing program. Slowly the currency markets are returning to relatively normal trading patterns as traders see little reason to take risks on higher yielding currencies in the face of the economic downturn.Today's trading may be characterized by a glut of economic indicators surrounding consumer spending and attitudes. Due today are personal spending numbers and a revised consumer sentiment report. A better than expected result in the data releases could provide another boost to the Dollar as the currency continues to recoup its losses from last week. Look for the EUR/USD to drop below the 1.3500 level today.

The Benefits Of Using A Money Management System For Forex Trading

Wise investors use a system to learn when to buy or sell and the amount of money at risk at any particular time. This is their money management program. An electronic, automated Forex trading system is an ideal money management program for anyone involved with the Forex marketplace.
Some people might be skeptical about an automated Forex trading system - after all, don’t such systems try to “time the market”, and isn’t that a no-no for investors? But experienced Forex traders know that good automated software to help them with trading can be set up with their chosen parameters so that no market timing is involved. Instead, the system uses the stop-loss, retracement, and other real-time parameters and couples those stipulations with mathematical algorithms such as often-used Fibonacci formula in order to automatically place buy or sell orders on behalf of the trader.
Due to the fact that there is almost always a currency market that is open at any given time in any area of the world, the Forex markets are open 24 hours daily, 7 days weekly. You do not have to concern yourself with market timing attempts when you have an automated Forex trading system acting as your money management program. It is the ideal software, since it never sleeps.
Knowledgeable individuals may wonder why use a money management program. Perhaps they think that investing is a gamble ranking about the same as visiting a casino. They may reason why you would use such a program if it makes no difference at all.
These people have of course got it all wrong. There is certainly uncertainty and chance involved in the market, but knowing how the market works and being able to manage your Forex trades and your finances can make a huge difference to your odds of success in the market. There are trends which can be seen in the market if you step back and take a look at the larger picture. Automated Forex trading systems use these patterns to make their market analysis and model future market behavior based on these historical patterns and proven mathematical models.
While there are of course plenty of professional gamblers who have made millions. There is no one who is lucky enough to make that many good decisions in a game of chance. While there is uncertainty in gambling just as there is investment, there is a genuine science to both - and in both, there are larger patterns which can be seen and exploited to ensure a greater chance of success.
Forex trading should also be approached in a systematic manner; this is the way to make a success of your trades. Just ask those who have been successful in the Forex market; they didn’t guess their way to wealth, they used a system.
And turning both good and bad luck to your long term advantage and profit is entirely possible with a sound money management program - and that, once again, can be enhanced by an automated Forex trading system.

Euro falls against dollar to $1.3473

The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday as investors digested new U.S. plans to prop up the world's largest economy and financial system.
The 16-nation euro bought $1.3473 in European morning trading, down from the $1.3518 late Tuesday in New York.
The euro had risen to the $1.37 level in the past week after the U.S. government said it would flood the financial system with money and buy up $300 billion worth of long-term Treasurys and $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. Those moves can also trigger inflation and devalue the dollar, but could help exports from the U.S.
The European Central Bank has so far said it has no plans for similar money injection programs.
On Monday, meanwhile, the U.S. government fleshed out a plan that would combine public and private money to scoop out up to $1 trillion worth of soured assets from banks' balance sheets.In other trading Wednesday, the British pound bought $1.4637 compared with $1.4721, while the dollar bought 97.49 Japanese yen, compared with 97.89 late Tuesday in New York

US dollar up on strong demand for Treasury bonds

The US dollar rose against the euro and the yen on Thursday amid healthy demand for US Treasury bonds and speculation on rate cuts in Europe to deal with a sharp economic downturn.The euro fetched 1.3522 dollars around 1900 GMT in New York against 1.3583 at the end of trading on Wednesday.The dollar also bounced to 98.52 yen from 97.54 on Wednesday.A better-than-expected fourth quarter GDP data revision for the US economy on Thursday "did little to encourage US dollar buying as players added to short positions on improving sentiment on the back of the rally over the past two weeks in global equities," said Michael Woolfolk of Bank of New York Mellon.Revised data showed a steep 6.3 percent pace of decline in US economic output in the fourth quarter of 2008, lower than the 6.6 percent anticipated by analysts."Currency traders shrugged off the underlying weakness because the GDP report is backward looking," said Kathy Lien of Global Forex Trading."The smaller revision provides relief but investors are still cautious about believing in a recovery," she said, citing rising US unemployment.As it shrugged off the GDP revision, the foreign exchange market closely monitored the bond market, where the Treasury's offering for seven-year notes enjoyed good demand compared with a weak auction a day earlier for five-year notes.Investors were "relieved to see healthy demand for today's Treasury auction, where the government successfully sold a record 24 billion dollars in seven-year notes," said Elizabeth Harrow at Schaeffer's Investment Research.The dollar also rose on continued bearish outlook for the euro zone.A pick-up in German consumer confidence has stalled as Europe's biggest economy has been hit by a steady stream of bad news, the latest survey by the GfK research institute showed on Thursday.A key index compiled by GfK edged lower to 2.4 points for April from a revised 2.5 points this month, the Nuremberg-based think tank said."As Europe's largest economy heads into a deepening recession, the European Central Bank is expected to ease policy further as the outlook for growth and inflation falters," said David Song of Forex Capital Markets.The euro was hit by expectations that the European Central Bank will lower interest rates next week and might announce new measures to breathe life into the contracting European economy."Two influential governing council members... have given clear signals that the ECB is set to ease monetary policy significantly next Thursday," said analysts at Barclays Capital.They said new measures could be unveiled including extending the term of the longer-term refinancing operations and also buying corporate debt.ECB vice president Lucas Papademos suggested on Thursday the European Central Bank could follow its peers in buying corporate bonds to ease credit market tensions.The European Central Bank has so far been reluctant to follow the example of its major counterparts in Japan, the US and Britain, which have programmes to buy corporate bonds aimed at bringing down market interest rates.The US dollar was lower at 1.1268 Swiss francs in New York on Thursday from 1.1318 a day earlier.The British pound fell to 1.4446 dollars from 1.4669. - AFP/de

Dollar Rebound Continues; Euro Under $1.36

The dollar on Friday continues to retrace the sharp losses that it saw during the previous two days.
U.S. stock markets have been unable to notch any solid gains despite the Federal Reserve's new liquidity injection plan, and that's pushing some investors back into the greenback for its safe haven status.
The euro fell to an intraday low near $1.3500 during the New York session and remains under $1.36 after hitting a 10-week high of $1.3739 Thursday. The dollar is back above Y96, three yen higher from a nearly one-month low reached a day earlier.
Much of the dollar's sharp losses earlier this week were attributed to a modest rally in U.S. stock markets after the Fed announced on Wednesday its new plan to revive the economy. The plan calls for pumping an additional $1.15 trillion into the system through the purchase of $300 billion in long-term Treasury bonds during the next six months, and other actions.
But stocks notched losses Thursday, and Friday they are trading rather flat, which is causing some investors to get out of choppy stocks once again and head back into the dollar.
Currency markets showed little immediate reaction to comments Friday from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He said the Fed actions have helped the economy and the financial system and that he's encouraged by market response to the Fed's credit programs.
Friday afternoon in New York, the euro was at $1.3568 from $1.3678 late Thursday, and the dollar was at Y96.15 from Y94.41, according to EBS. The euro was at Y130.45 from Y129.14. The U.K. pound was at $1.4455 from $1.4518. The dollar was at CHF1.1246 from CHF1.1228 Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is little changed Friday around noon EDT as currency traders try to gauge wavering levels of risk aversion as reflected in equity market developments.
The Canadian currency showed little response to news of a surprise 1.9% jump in Canadian retail sales in January, and analysts say it is generally seen as headed for a period of consolidation after its recent sharp upward move.
Currency strategist Jacqui Douglas of TD Securities in Toronto said that the U.S.-Canadian dollar pair is currently trying "to find some stable footing within the newly established C$1.2200-C$1.2600 range."
Recently, the dollar is at C$1.2370, from C$1.2373 late Thursday.

WORLD FOREX: Dollar In Partial Recovery From Post-FOMC Rout

The dollar managed Friday to retrace some of its recent sharp losses in a partial recovery from one of its worst weeks in several decades.
The U.S. currency had been battered severely by the Federal Reserve's announcement Wednesday of its new plan to revive the economy. Fears that a monetizing of U.S. debt would debase the dollar had placed the euro and other currencies on track for significant gains.
Even with Friday's advance, the dollar suffered its biggest single-week decline since 1985 on the dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies.
National Bank's Toronto-based managing director of foreign exchange Jack Spitz termed Wednesday's Fed actions a "watershed moment in terms of dollar sentiment globally."
Friday's quiet tone in currency markets stood in stark contrast to the tumultuous movements earlier in the week, when an already sagging dollar plunged in the wake of the Fed announcement that included the purchase of $300 billion in long-term Treasury bonds during the next six months, among other actions.
In trading characterized mostly by end-of-the-week position-squaring and illiquidity due to a holiday in Japan, the dollar rallied back against the euro and yen Friday, and notched more modest gains against a range of other currencies as well.
Nevertheless, the euro exited active trading with one of its biggest weekly advances versus the dollar since the single currency's introduction in 1999, said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at electronic trading platform Forex.com. The euro was up nearly 5% from $1.2920 a week ago.
Late Friday, the euro was at $1.3560 from $1.3678 late Thursday and the dollar was at Y95.90 from Y94.41, according to EBS. The euro was at Y130.07 from Y129.14. The U.K. pound was at $1.4440 from $1.4518. The dollar was at CHF1.1295 from CHF1.1228 Thursday.
The dollar's decline might have carried over into Friday were it not for the reversal that occurred in European trading when the euro suffered from chatter that the European Central Bank may be preparing to substantially increase its bailout plans for struggling euro-zone and eastern European economies.
Talk had been circulating during a two-day summit of European Union leaders in Brussels that the ECB had created a contingency fund to rescue troubled euro-zone economies, including those of Ireland and Greece.
But E.U. leaders, finance ministers and the ECB on Friday said no such fund has been established. German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told a news conference after the summit that the euro zone is ready to help any member country in need, but said no member is currently in that position.
Nevertheless, the European developments played into a market impulse for some stabilization and consolidation of the extreme moves of the previous two days, said National Bank's Spitz.
"The market was looking for reasons to pare back short dollar positions, and the ECB rumors were the catalyst and gave the market an opportunity to square up positions going into the weekend," Spitz said.
The corrective tone carried over into North American trading Friday, as U.S. stock markets continued to flounder despite the Federal Reserve's new liquidity injection plan, encouraging some investors to cautiously inch back into U.S. dollar positions on safe-haven considerations.
Currency markets showed little immediate reaction to comments Friday from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He said the Fed's actions have helped the economy and the financial system and that he is encouraged by market response to the Fed's credit programs.

Noose around stamp paper racket

Stamp papers from the Northeast are being smuggled to Bangladesh and Nepal to produce counterfeit Indian currency notes, sleuths have warned Dispur, prompting the government to put in place a verification mechanism.
All the district administration in the state have been asked to check the daily stock of stamp papers with the vendors and the indents sent by them.
“We are taking the matter very seriously and the district administrations have been asked to strictly monitor the stocks and take swift and stern action if anything was found amiss,” an official said.
Sleuths of state and central agencies stumbled upon the disturbing fact while investigating cases related to seizure of fake currency notes in various states of the Northeast during the past year.
A source in Assam police today said a probe into the method employed by the fake currency racketeers revealed that the stamp papers were used because of their “thickness” and “good quality”.
“According to the information available with us, they (the racketeers) are using stamp papers because their quality is very similar to the paper that is used to make currency notes at the government-owned Nasik Road India Security Press in Maharashtra,” the police source said.
“Usually, they first paste the original currency note on a piece of stamp paper, which is used for its thickness and good quality, and then they take coloured print-outs of that using the latest printing technology. The fake notes were generally used along with original notes in bulk amount to avoid detection,” he said.
It is believed that the printing dens are based in countries like Bangladesh and Nepal, which share porous international borders with India.
“After the new fact was unearthed, it became necessary that the state governments take every possible measure to tighten the noose around the unscrupulous stamp paper vendors to stop the illegal diversion of the stamp papers to the fake currency rackets,” the police official said.
The law-enforcing agencies — the police, the CID and the CBI — have also heightened vigilance to bust these international rackets, which are pumping fake currency notes into India in an attempt to destabilise the country’s economy.
What worries the security agencies, however, is the quality of the fake notes, which makes it difficult for even the sleuths to detect a fake note from an original one.
“Since these notes resemble the originals so closely that the police forces of the northeastern states are taking help from forensic experts for scientific examination of the seized notes to confirm their suspicion,” he said.
An official source at the Forensic Science Laboratory in Guwahati said one-third of the cases received by the laboratory last year were related to counterfeit currencies.
The laboratory has received the highest number of such cases from Mizoram followed by Assam in 2008.
“During examination of these fake currencies, it was found that the paper used to produce the fake notes was stamp paper,” the laboratory source said.
The single largest haul of last year — which was sent to the laboratory for examination by Mizoram police — contained several bundles of fake notes totalling Rs 25 lakh.
All the seized notes were of Rs 100, Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denominations.

Nepalese held with fake currency

A Nepali Gorkha was arrested in Udham Singh Nagar district for carrying fake currency having face value of Rs 60,000, police said here today. Kailash Chandra, who hails from Veerganj in Nepal, was arrested in Nanakmatta Sahib area of the district yesterday, police said. Besides seizing fake currency having face value of Rs 60,000, police also recovered 20 gms of heroin from his possession, they said. Chandra also told the police that he worked for a gang, operating from Nepal.

Nepal lost Rs 22 billion in Mid-Marsyangdi

Nepal incurred a direct and indirect loss of a total of around Rs 22 billion due to the delay in completion of the 70-MW (megawatt) Middle Marsyangdi Hydroelectric Project (MMHP), said a government official at a meeting of a parliamentary sub-committee.“The facts show that there is an accumulative loss of Rs 22 billion, including the loss of revenue the government could have earned during the 48 months of project delay,” said Bhava Nath Dahal, chartered accountant of the Office of the Auditor General, at a meeting of sub-committee of the parliament’s Public Accounts Committee on Sunday.The parliamentary committee formed a sub-committee to study the reasons behind the delay in completion of the project and its cost overruns.The total amount also includes the interest amount of Rs 4.36 billion the project bore due to delay in its completion.The run-of-river type project with an installed capacity of 70 megawatts and an average annual energy generation of 398 gigawatt hours, was inaugurated by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal on Dec. 14, 2008, four years behind the original schedule.Upon completion, the cost of the project stood at over Rs 28 billion against the original estimate of Rs 13.65 billion. Construction work started in June, 2001, with a target of completion by December 2004.The project official said Maoist insurgency, frequent termination of contracts and the strengthening of the Euro against Nepali currency led to the delay and cost overruns.It was also said that the contractors frequently suspended works at the site citing security reasons, frequent strikes, curfews, transport strikes, the people’s movement and local agitations.The contractor was awarded the contract for its lowest bid of 9 million Euro, however the amount later increased up to 47 million Euro. Reasons given for the increase were strikes, security and various other issues.“It shows that there is a racket of international companies, including the consultants, contractors and other agencies who deliberately wanted to prolong the project because it proved beneficial to them,” said Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, coordinator of the committee.Constituent Assembly (CA) members in the committee expressed their objections when they were briefed by the project official that an international security advisor agency was appointed upon the request of the consultants and contractors to make security assessments at the project site which also led cost overrun. Britain-based private company Rubicon International Services Ltd. was appointed security advisor. “If it is said that laws of Nepal will apply, then why is there a need for an international security advisor. We have to further study whether it is a justified demand,” said Lohani. The CA members said the intention to prolong project construction duration could be clearly felt.Executive Director of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Uttar Kumar Shrestha, who was also present at the meeting, argued that they accepted the consultant’s condition of appointment of the security agency as it had been agreed in the memorandum of understanding signed earlier.CA members demanded further clarification from the NEA and project officials about the details about appointment of consultants, variations in design and selection of the contractor through bids.The sub-committee will meet again on Tuesday to study the agreement documents between the government of Nepal, Fichtner Joint Venture (FJV), responsible for carrying out the detailed design and construction supervision of the project, and German state bank KfW. The project was funded by KfW, the government of Nepal and the NEA.Project Director Sunil Dhungel said the additional costs went on increasing as the detail design of the project was simultaneously prepared, while the construction of the project had already started. “It was the same with the 144-MW Kali Gandaki hydro project. It happens in India and in other countries as well,” Dhungel claimed, when Lohani asked the reasons behind the additional cost.“Preparing a detail design before inception of the construction work at the site is a mammoth task as well. Again it needs huge investment,” Dhungel argued.A case has been filed at the International Court of Arbitration over disputes in the project.

China stresses security, liquidity when deploying forex reserves

BEIJING, Feb. 21 (Xinhua) -- China on Saturday reaffirmed its efforts to ensure security and liquidity when deploying foreign exchange reserves.
"We did use foreign exchange reserves to buy U.S. treasury bonds. Our principle of using reserves is to ensure security and liquidity," Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi told the press following talks with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
China replaced Japan as the top holder of U.S. treasury debt last September, with its overall holding hitting 585 billion U.S. dollars, according to U.S. Treasury data.
Yang said China will continue to follow these principles when deciding on the ways and means of deploying the country's about two-trillion-U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves in the future.
Yang lauded China-U.S. trade relations, saying it generated tangible benefits to both people, particularly those with lower incomes.
Despite the grave global financial turmoil, China-U.S. trade volume rose by 10.5 percent in 2008 to 333.7 billion U.S. dollars, according to the China's Customs.
"We appreciated the efforts of the U.S. government to stimulate the economy and tackle the financial crisis," Yang said.
Yang said China's four-trillion-yuan (about 580 billion U.S. dollars) stimulus package would help boost China's economy, which is the country's biggest contribution to addressing the global financial crisis.
"Facts proved that both countries had worked very well in dealing with the crisis. We would like to work more with the United States," Yang said